Thu, Mar 14, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 312 | 07 | 38 | 627 |
| PHI | 012 | 19 | 17 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 9:57TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Connor Dewar, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 15:39TORTimothy LiljegrenGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Ilya Samsonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 1:42PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 4:45TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 4:53TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Max Domi, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 9:00TORMatthew KniesAssists: Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.21 xG6–1
- P3 18:28PHITyson FoersterSHAssists: Travis Sanheim, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.14 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:14TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:29TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:55PHISean Couturier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:55TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:11PHIBobby Brink: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:53PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16TORMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:16PHIGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:11PHICam York: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Domi – Nylander6:57
xG 1.23–0.30 (81%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Dewar – Holmberg4:56
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Kampf – McMann – Knies5:26
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Matthews – Holmberg4:49
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Liljegren12:32
xG 1.39–0.34 (80%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Brodie – McCabe15:07
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin13:36
xG 0.45–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates10:07
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Couturier – Gurianov – Foerster6:01
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Brink5:27
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Couturier – Gurianov – Brink3:42
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – York14:37
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Staal – Attard12:19
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zamula16:22
xG 0.19–1.06 (15%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).