Thu, Mar 14, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 6, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 26 | 38 | 16 | 620 |
| DAL | 27 | 016 | 014 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 5:41NJDErik HaulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 12:04DALCraig SmithAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 17:14NJDChris TierneyAssists: Kurtis MacDermid, Nick DeSimone · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 1:31NJDDawson MercerGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 3:52NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 5:12NJDTomas NosekAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 14:25NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Chris Tierney, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:16NJDKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min
- P2 12:06NJDKevin Bahl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:23NJDKevin Bahl: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Meier – Bratt10:22
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Palat – Nosek – Holtz4:11
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Lazar – Nosek7:31
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hischier – Hughes – Mercer12:18
xG 0.91–1.20 (43%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec18:04
xG 1.10–0.87 (56%)attempts 11–18goals 4–1
- DeSimone – Bahl17:45
xG 0.77–1.01 (43%)attempts 11–27goals 1–0
- Smith – Hatakka10:58
xG 0.34–0.93 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Johnston4:58
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Smith – Robertson6:37
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Hintz – Marchment – Stankoven5:35
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston6:28
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen5:18
xG 0.99–0.36 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Harley4:57
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää13:52
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).