Fri, Mar 15, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 0, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 011 | 04 | 021 |
| WPG | 111 | 110 | 417 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:20WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:47WPGNate SchmidtPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 4:59WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Brenden Dillon · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:07WPGTyler ToffoliAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 11:05WPGTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 19:54WPGMason AppletonPPAssists: Adam Lowry, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.06 xG0–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:47WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:09ANABo Groulx: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:09WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05ANAPavol Regenda: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:59ANARoss Johnston: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:59WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:57ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:19ANAWilliam Lagesson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:54WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:54ANARoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Groulx
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Meyers – Regenda5:26
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnston – Groulx – Regenda2:39
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johnston – Groulx – Leason3:53
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Strome – Terry12:04
xG 0.53–0.85 (38%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lagesson – Vaakanainen3:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Lindstrom9:29
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – Zellweger10:11
xG 0.63–0.94 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:15
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:33
xG 1.14–0.48 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Monahan – Ehlers8:03
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Gustafsson8:10
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:56
xG 1.66–0.59 (74%)attempts 28–11goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Stanley11:56
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk11:46
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).