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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 15, 2024·United Center, Chicago

Los Angeles Kings 5, Chicago Blackhawks 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

CHI winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK41511705537
CHI01205011028

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:10LAKPierre-Luc DuboisPPGWGAssists: Jordan Spence, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:33LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 8:03LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
  4. P1 14:19LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.32 xG4–0
  5. P2 2:31LAKJordan SpenceAssists: Alex Laferriere, Andreas Englund · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 1:43CHIJarred Tinordi: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:52LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
  3. P2 13:34CHIPetr Mrazek: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 15:54LAKJacob Moverare: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 5:36LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 8:35LAKJordan Spence: Interference2 min
  7. P3 19:30CHINick Foligno: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
46% to win54% to win
← LAK attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Danault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCHI
37Shots on goal28
3.6Expected goals2.2
68Shot attempts55
31Faceoffs won28
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
9Hits26
19Blocked shots15
0Giveaways6
8Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield8:42

    xG 1.09–0.17 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0

  2. Dubois – Turcotte – Laferriere7:47

    xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0

  3. Lewis – Lizotte – Byfield2:49

    xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  4. Lewis – Dubois – Lizotte2:27

    xG 0.12–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDoughty – Anderson10:55

    xG 1.13–0.23 (83%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0

  2. Gavrikov – Roy11:58

    xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0

  3. Englund – Spence8:06

    xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Anderson4:41

    xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Johnson – Raddysh – Kurashev2:52

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Athanasiou – Anderson – Bedard5:04

    xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  4. Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard6:46

    xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMegna – Vlasic2:08

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  2. Megna – Korchinski2:50

    xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1

  3. Tinordi – Megna10:24

    xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.2 xGLAK 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHILAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 4/100 · #1264 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.57 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

CHI winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).