Sat, Mar 16, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 38 | 213 | 27 | 728 |
| PIT | 211 | 110 | 116 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36PITJohn LudvigAssists: Jeff Carter, Noel Acciari · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 3:07NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 3:33NYRAdam FoxAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 12:27PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 15:32NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P2 10:10PITLars EllerPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 16:27NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P2 17:32NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 4:41NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.00 xG6–3
- P3 7:23PITValtteri PuustinenAssists: Reilly Smith, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.09 xG6–4
- P3 19:42NYRChris KreiderENAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.75 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:37NYRKaapo Kakko: Interference2 min
- P1 7:56PITDrew O'Connor: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:45NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P2 9:30NYRWill Cuylle: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15PITNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:05
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 3–1
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle3:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Cuylle4:00
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Vesey – Brodzinski2:40
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Jones12:44
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:21
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Miller – Schneider15:36
xG 0.34–1.18 (22%)attempts 7–30goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting11:45
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen7:54
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor12:29
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Carter – Acciari – Bemstrom7:12
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Joseph2:02
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves12:11
xG 0.90–0.56 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Letang – Pettersson13:00
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).