Sat, Mar 16, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 110 | 311 | 529 |
| BOS | 15 | 115 | 410 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Egor Zamula · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:51BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Parker Wotherspoon · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:01PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Cam York, Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:22BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Brad Marchand, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 1:08BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 3:45BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Andrew Peeke, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 4:04BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–5
- P3 14:12PHINicolas DeslauriersUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 15:14PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Cam York · Between legs, 0.19 xG4–5
- P3 17:01BOSDanton HeinenGWGAssists: Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 17:56PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:55BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58BOSCharlie McAvoy: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:58PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:58BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:44PHITyson Foerster: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00PHICam York: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BOSJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:29BOSDanton Heinen: Broken stick2 min
- P3 10:53PHITyson Foerster: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Atkinson – Deslauriers – Couturier2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates9:44
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Tippett – Frost – Foerster6:48
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee3:30
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestZamula – Attard2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York18:03
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 16–22goals 2–2
- Staal – Attard7:53
xG 0.25–0.77 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:48
xG 1.15–0.31 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher9:04
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha7:16
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Heinen – Frederic – Geekie7:34
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:28
xG 1.15–0.53 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 3–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:58
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Peeke13:07
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).