Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 116 | 117 | 13 | 343 |
| EDM | 010 | 09 | 211 | 04 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:39COLSean WalkerAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 5:46EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 11:48EDMSam CarrickAssists: Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 14:40COLSean WalkerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 4:59COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:46EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:29COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:13EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:25EDMVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:25COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen17:06
xG 1.17–0.34 (78%)attempts 33–14goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Mittelstadt13:12
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Trenin – Duhaime7:26
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Wood – Colton8:21
xG 0.71–1.05 (40%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:10
xG 1.37–0.30 (82%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Walker9:25
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Walker4:07
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:18
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid9:08
xG 0.85–0.62 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – McLeod3:57
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod6:13
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:11
xG 1.15–0.83 (58%)attempts 23–24goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:39
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse3:13
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).