Sun, Mar 17, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 114 | 06 | 227 |
| NYR | 012 | 311 | 28 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08NYIBo HorvatSHAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:27NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:14NYRWill CuylleAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:55NYIBo HorvatAssists: Brock Nelson, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 15:01NYRJonny BrodzinskiGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 2:36NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 10:42NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:57NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P1 13:50NYIPierre Engvall: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:32NYRAdam Fox: Interference2 min
- P2 17:45NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean4:39
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom7:51
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Horvat10:15
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal13:20
xG 0.57–0.89 (39%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson16:20
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:12
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Aho11:55
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic11:18
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Cuylle8:17
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Brodzinski – Wennberg – Kakko11:40
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:18
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Schneider12:52
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 22–10goals 2–1
- Fox – Lindgren9:57
xG 0.68–0.44 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Jones9:33
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).