Sun, Mar 17, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 413 | 17 | 627 |
| CBJ | 011 | 08 | 112 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:10WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:45WPGTyler ToffoliAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 12:00WPGLogan StanleyUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 18:24WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Morgan Barron, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 0:39CBJBrendan GaunceAssists: Jake Christiansen, Mathieu Olivier · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 17:34WPGTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG6–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:29WPGTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:47CBJTrey Fix-Wolansky: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:14CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:56WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaunce won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Monahan – Ehlers10:52
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:57
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Gustafsson8:57
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:04
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:01
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:12
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Stanley13:50
xG 0.12–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Marchenko – Sillinger11:48
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander12:29
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–3
- Fix-Wolansky – Voronkov – Pyyhtia8:20
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Olivier – Meyer14:23
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Bean2:34
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Severson – Provorov4:05
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Provorov – Christiansen2:40
xG 0.02–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).