Sun, Mar 17, 2024·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 08 | 08 | 227 |
| CHI | 08 | 115 | 48 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33SJSRyan CarpenterAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:32SJSKlim KostinAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mario Ferraro · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 14:02CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Tyler Johnson, Connor Bedard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:39CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Jaycob Megna · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:51CHIKevin KorchinskiGWGAssists: Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 12:02CHIJoey AndersonAssists: Colin Blackwell, Alex Vlasic · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:59CHIConnor BedardENAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:06SJSAlexander Barabanov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:32CHITyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:32SJSCalen Addison: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:33SJSThomas Bordeleau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Kostin – Zetterlund11:24
xG 1.64–0.16 (91%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Labanc – Barabanov7:49
xG 0.43–0.47 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund10:27
xG 0.15–0.38 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Bailey – Sturm – Bordeleau9:17
xG 0.04–0.30 (12%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Ferraro16:06
xG 1.49–0.21 (88%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Thrun13:44
xG 0.98–0.85 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Addison13:11
xG 0.08–0.52 (14%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Raddysh – Slaggert7:52
xG 0.98–0.76 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson11:09
xG 0.25–0.19 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kurashev – Bedard12:19
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Foligno – Athanasiou – Reichel10:34
xG 0.14–0.44 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Megna8:57
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Jones – Vlasic16:08
xG 0.96–0.69 (58%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Megna – Vlasic2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).