Sun, Mar 17, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 011 | 110 | 228 |
| STL | 09 | 110 | 38 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:41ANATroy TerryAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 14:56STLKevin HayesAssists: Torey Krug, Zachary Bolduc · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 1:53STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:12STLJake NeighboursPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 9:33STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 19:52ANATroy TerryAssists: Alex Killorn, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:39ANAOlen Zellweger: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:41ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:20ANAUrho Vaakanainen: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:10STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:13STLZachary Bolduc: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:59ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:52ANAJackson LaCombe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23ANAMax Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson7:22
xG 0.96–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Leason4:41
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – Carlsson5:33
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Terry – Leason3:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Zellweger15:05
xG 1.05–0.61 (63%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- LaCombe – Mintyukov12:10
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Vaakanainen – Lindstrom12:37
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Neighbours5:00
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc4:42
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc2:37
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:23
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel12:29
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Perunovich11:47
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko14:33
xG 0.43–1.30 (25%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).