Mon, Mar 18, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 315 | 110 | 533 |
| CGY | 012 | 111 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59WSHDylan StromeAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:58WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 9:16WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 10:41CGYKevin RooneyAssists: Brayden Pachal, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 14:22WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Sonny Milano · Bat, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 7:13CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:31WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Nick Jensen · Slap, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:47WSHIvan Miroshnichenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:41CGYBrayden Pachal: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 8:46CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 18:16CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:37WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Milano – Lapierre7:49
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome2:10
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Miroshnichenko9:02
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael8:28
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry4:48
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin3:38
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev5:21
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:16
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:48
xG 0.91–0.66 (58%)attempts 22–20goals 1–0
- Hunt – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:23
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Greer – Rooney – Coronato6:55
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov14:40
xG 1.04–0.44 (70%)attempts 27–19goals 1–0
- Andersson – Kylington16:16
xG 0.97–0.45 (68%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Hanley – Pachal9:46
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).