Mon, Mar 18, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Buffalo Sabres 6, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 310 | 212 | 18 | 630 |
| SEA | 29 | 07 | 018 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24SEAJordan EberleAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 0:49BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 3:56BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 5:41BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 14:36SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 10:36BUFOwen PowerAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 11:18BUFJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 18:01BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jacob Bryson · Slap, 0.17 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:46BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:30SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:08SEAEeli Tolvanen: Holding2 min
- P2 13:00BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:00BUFZemgus Girgensons: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:19BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson8:03
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs8:51
xG 0.68–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Robinson8:16
xG 0.29–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Tuch – Thompson9:21
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson12:08
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power12:01
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Dahlin – Byram15:48
xG 0.79–0.88 (47%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tolvanen – Beniers12:40
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – McCann8:28
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Tatar – Bellemare – Tanev4:56
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye2:20
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Larsson14:26
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Schultz – Evans9:25
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Dumoulin – Borgen2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).