Tue, Mar 19, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 223 | 04 | 231 |
| BOS | 26 | 111 | 39 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:23BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 13:08OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 18:51BOSJustin BrazeauPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P2 19:56OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 4:43BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 5:08BOSJesper BoqvistAssists: John Beecher, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
- P3 18:06BOSJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:56BOSJohn Beecher: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:19BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:31BOSAndrew Peeke: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:17BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:15OTTJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:19OTTParker Kelly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:11OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:34BOSTrent Frederic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto15:25
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly8:31
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle8:58
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 16–8goals 0–3
- Kubalik – Greig – Ostapchuk7:18
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Chychrun2:23
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:26
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom14:05
xG 0.43–0.85 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Heinen – Zacha10:36
xG 1.09–0.28 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher6:24
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Lauko8:00
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk11:06
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Peeke13:03
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:52
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Carlo14:53
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).