Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 220 | 07 | 18 | 00 | 335 |
| DET | 05 | 29 | 110 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:43CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 2:57DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 4:23DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Ben Chiarot, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–2
- P3 4:26CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:47DETLucas RaymondAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- OT 0:48DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.92 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:21CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:35CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min
- P2 1:12CBJAlexandre Texier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:40DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:52DETJoseph Veleno: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 0:48CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Fischer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFix-Wolansky – Voronkov – Pyyhtia8:14
xG 0.74–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger12:05
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander14:06
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Olivier – Meyer8:55
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski15:38
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Severson – Provorov2:32
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Provorov – Bean11:40
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Czarnik – DeBrincat9:10
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong2:24
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Sprong – Rasmussen2:02
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Veleno4:45
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Seider15:03
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere13:26
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Petry – Edvinsson15:38
xG 0.14–0.70 (16%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).