Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 118 | 18 | 238 |
| NJD | 115 | 19 | 314 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tomas Nosek, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 7:16PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:20NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:58NJDAlexander HoltzGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 9:14NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tomas Nosek, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 16:53NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Bat, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 17:15PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:34NJDKevin Bahl: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:30PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:51PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:48NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 15:12PITValtteri Puustinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting10:33
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Acciari – Bemstrom – Gruden5:48
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor15:02
xG 1.61–1.77 (48%)attempts 19–28goals 1–1
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen10:40
xG 0.36–0.66 (36%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Ludvig9:36
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson6:42
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves8:56
xG 0.33–0.60 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Bratt – Hischier12:10
xG 1.36–1.07 (56%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer11:25
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Haula – Hughes – Holtz11:30
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Tierney – Lazar – Willman5:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Bahl19:26
xG 1.60–0.95 (63%)attempts 26–18goals 0–1
- DeSimone – Hughes12:19
xG 0.84–0.85 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Hatakka – Nemec13:12
xG 0.42–0.80 (34%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).