Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 116 | 214 | 15 | 435 |
| STL | 110 | 213 | 010 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:48STLNathan WalkerAssists: Scott Perunovich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:44STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Justin Faulk, Nathan Walker · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 6:41COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Samuel Girard, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:43STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jake Neighbours · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 18:46COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 4:15COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:54COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:13STLMatthew Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08COLZach Parise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:24STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30COLValeri Nichushkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Drouin – Mittelstadt9:06
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Wood – Trenin5:54
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Mittelstadt2:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen13:10
xG 0.95–0.92 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Walker5:53
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Walker8:34
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Manson4:28
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Thomas – Neighbours6:41
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas6:18
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko5:46
xG 0.23–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc9:36
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Parayko18:57
xG 0.99–1.00 (50%)attempts 22–19goals 1–1
- Perunovich – Kessel2:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug5:23
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).