Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 010 | 27 | 00 | 225 |
| EDM | 17 | 19 | 010 | 16 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 14:55EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 0:32MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, David Savard · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:43MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Jake Evans, Jordan Harris · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 3:18EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:29MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29EDMSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:55EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:43EDMRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:37MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:54MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:17MTLDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32MTLJoel Armia: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard2:45
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:31
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:44
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy9:29
xG 0.56–1.02 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj12:28
xG 0.83–0.13 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Matheson – Harris2:02
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj2:35
xG 0.01–0.05 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hyman – McDavid10:54
xG 1.35–0.22 (86%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod9:18
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Perry – Carrick – Janmark5:03
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:12
xG 1.47–0.70 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Nurse – Stecher12:13
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak12:24
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).