Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 98% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 03 | 27 | 217 |
| VAN | 115 | 110 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06VANConor GarlandAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Poke, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:48VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 9:23BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Owen Power, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 18:09VANElias PetterssonENGWGAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
- P3 19:38BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:58VANCarson Soucy: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:06BUFVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 7:14VANNils Aman: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:52BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:22VANNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:39BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:21VANPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:07BUFJacob Bryson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:31VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:31BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:55BUFJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Tuch – Thompson7:39
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs6:39
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson7:40
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Robinson2:51
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power3:16
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Byram2:57
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Lafferty – Mikheyev7:48
xG 0.87–0.19 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter9:01
xG 1.01–0.36 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Hoglander8:02
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Blueger – Podkolzin – Aman4:47
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes12:52
xG 1.00–0.10 (91%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy11:16
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov8:46
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 98% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).