Thu, Mar 21, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 5, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 213 | 39 | 531 |
| BOS | 114 | 06 | 16 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Trent Frederic, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:58NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:25NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 3:17BOSJustin BrazeauAssists: Brad Marchand, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 3:57NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 17:57NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–2
- P3 19:08NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:50BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:00NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:56NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03NYRAdam Fox: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic9:21
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:31
xG 0.66–0.51 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle8:48
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Rempe3:48
xG 0.00–0.50 (1%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Fox15:02
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Jones10:32
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher4:46
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk11:12
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Frederic – Geekie – Lauko4:26
xG 0.00–0.21 (2%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha8:02
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:18
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – McAvoy2:14
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Peeke10:12
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).