Thu, Mar 21, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Winnipeg Jets 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 19 | 05 | 119 |
| NJD | 06 | 123 | 312 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:00NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 16:47WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 5:59NJDNico HischierPPGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 11:52NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:11NJDTimo MeierENAssists: Erik Haula, Nico Hischier · Backhand, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:27NJDKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:11NJDSimon Nemec: Interference2 min
- P2 8:51WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55WPGDylan Samberg: Holding2 min
- P3 4:02WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:22NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:29WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37NJDBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Namestnikov – Barron – Gustafsson4:13
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron2:32
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Monahan – Ehlers7:58
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:14
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – Pionk10:49
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:36
xG 0.05–0.00 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:50
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Nosek – Mercer8:42
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier8:10
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tierney – MacDermid – Lazar2:49
xG 0.02–0.01 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Hughes – Holtz8:07
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeSimone – Hughes13:28
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Bahl – Nemec2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hatakka – Nemec11:06
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).