Fri, Mar 22, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Washington Capitals 7 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 212 | 27 | 02 | 0 | 631 |
| WSH | 14 | 29 | 310 | 02 | 1 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 12:45WSHSonny MilanoPPAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:12CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:59WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Ivan Miroshnichenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 14:40WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Dylan Strome · Bat, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:23CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 19:54CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Martin Necas · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 3:45WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 8:19WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 9:35CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.17 xG5–5
- P3 13:53WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ivan Miroshnichenko · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–6
- P3 17:39CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.05 xG6–6
Shootout
- 1. CAR Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. WSH Sonny Milano stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 4. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 5. CAR Jake Guentzel stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 7. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 8. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 9. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 10. WSH Dylan Strome scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:15WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:05CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57CARJordan Martinook: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:11CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:07WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:07CARSebastian Aho: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:26CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Aho – Jarvis13:11
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi5:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Teravainen – Necas12:17
xG 0.57–0.91 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov10:18
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:19
xG 0.78–0.36 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin12:56
xG 0.35–0.66 (35%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce15:37
xG 0.32–0.76 (29%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Milano – Strome6:46
xG 0.71–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Aube-Kubel – McMichael5:52
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn4:27
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Sgarbossa – Malenstyn7:37
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev5:55
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry7:47
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry10:13
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).