Fri, Mar 22, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 07 | 012 | 124 |
| COL | 114 | 222 | 314 | 650 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 11:00COLCale MakarAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:43COLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Zach Parise · Poke, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 7:07COLMikko RantanenAssists: Josh Manson, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 6:01COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 7:14COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 13:38COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:13CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54CBJAlex Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:22CBJJake Bean: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:26CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:26COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Fix-Wolansky – Voronkov – Pyyhtia8:34
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Olivier – Meyer8:52
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander14:43
xG 0.95–1.28 (43%)attempts 17–22goals 1–2
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger13:09
xG 0.37–1.14 (25%)attempts 9–23goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Christiansen5:48
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:42
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bean – Christiansen6:18
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParise – Wood – Colton10:06
xG 1.43–0.14 (91%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin8:18
xG 0.97–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Trenin – Duhaime7:54
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen5:54
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:24
xG 1.44–0.52 (73%)attempts 21–18goals 3–0
- Johnson – Walker14:16
xG 1.19–0.63 (65%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Manson – Girard15:22
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).