Sat, Mar 23, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Winnipeg Jets 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 13 | 015 | 217 | 335 |
| NYI | 315 | 321 | 03 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:50NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Matt Martin, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 11:20WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Morgan Barron, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 15:47NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 1:51NYIHudson FaschingGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 9:11NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Hudson Fasching, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
- P2 15:32NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Hudson Fasching · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 7:37WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 17:50WPGCole PerfettiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:00WPGMorgan Barron: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:00NYIKyle MacLean: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16WPGCole Perfetti: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:21NYIMike Reilly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Niederreiter – Lowry4:03
xG 0.84–0.28 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Appleton3:29
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Monahan – Connor4:21
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Perfetti5:11
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg16:28
xG 1.27–0.17 (88%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:35
xG 0.99–0.67 (60%)attempts 18–18goals 1–2
- Dillon – Pionk17:10
xG 0.36–1.86 (16%)attempts 19–32goals 0–4
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Fasching – Barzal12:25
xG 1.21–0.61 (67%)attempts 21–17goals 3–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Engvall12:43
xG 0.67–0.28 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Horvat12:57
xG 0.41–0.88 (32%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean9:16
xG 0.37–0.98 (27%)attempts 6–20goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson16:49
xG 1.00–0.60 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock15:42
xG 0.78–1.02 (43%)attempts 21–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).