Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 311 | 18 | 525 |
| NJD | 04 | 28 | 08 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56OTTMathieu JosephSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 0:23NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:59NJDTomas NosekAssists: Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:06OTTRidly GreigAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 6:02OTTAngus CrookshankGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 9:01OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 10:15OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:38OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38NJDKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:22OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:14NJDLuke Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:20NJDAlexander Holtz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:19NJDJohn Marino: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:19OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:19NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min
- P2 15:00OTTMathieu Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:02OTTJake Sanderson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:40NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Crookshank – Stützle8:51
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto10:04
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly5:34
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig7:12
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:27
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom9:59
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker8:15
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hughes – Holtz6:22
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer6:33
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes2:26
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tierney – MacDermid – Lazar3:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Nemec5:51
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- DeSimone – Hughes7:25
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec5:23
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).