Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 112 | 13 | 04 | 1 | 330 |
| NYR | 08 | 215 | 110 | 04 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Josh Mahura, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:21FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Reinhart, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 6:22NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:23NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:52FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 16:35NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Zac Jones, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 2. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
- 3. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 4. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 5. NYR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 6. FLA Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:03NYRErik Gustafsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:46FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16FLAKyle Okposo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:44NYRBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:18
xG 0.68–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Rodrigues – Stenlund8:49
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Cousins – Lorentz7:30
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:34
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mahura12:15
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Bjornfot15:01
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis14:47
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic8:43
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Vesey – Rempe6:21
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Wennberg – Kakko9:32
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:30
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Schneider16:12
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Ruhwedel – Jones10:39
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Fox16:17
xG 0.47–0.68 (40%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).