Sat, Mar 23, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 03 | 19 | 222 |
| VGK | 08 | 222 | 217 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32CBJErik GudbransonAssists: Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:31VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:57VGKJack EichelAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 3:03VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 17:18VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 19:48CBJCarson MeyerAssists: Trey Fix-Wolansky · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:41VGKKeegan Kolesar: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:00CBJAlexandre Texier: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:47CBJMathieu Olivier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Marchenko – Sillinger13:01
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Fix-Wolansky – Voronkov – Pyyhtia4:05
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Olivier – Meyer7:24
xG 0.09–0.65 (12%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Nylander15:25
xG 0.05–1.06 (4%)attempts 2–26goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Bean8:31
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Provorov – Christiansen2:04
xG 0.25–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Provorov2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev7:05
xG 0.94–0.06 (94%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy8:02
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Eichel6:32
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev3:38
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Hague18:51
xG 1.36–0.06 (96%)attempts 32–4goals 0–0
- Hutton – Theodore8:51
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud5:22
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).