Sun, Mar 24, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 317 | 17 | 430 |
| NYI | 013 | 010 | 013 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:38NJDTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:57NJDJack HughesAssists: Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 6:12NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 15:53NJDChris TierneyENAssists: Erik Haula, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:28NJDSanteri Hatakka: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:26NJDErik Haula: Interference2 min
- P1 17:48NYIBo Horvat: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:10NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:55NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37NJDJohn Marino: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:48NJDTimo Meier: Instigator2 min
- P2 16:48NYIAnders Lee: Kneeing5 min
- P2 16:48NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:48NJDTimo Meier: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:48NYIAnders Lee: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 16:48NJDTimo Meier: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 9:48NJDSimon Nemec: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:42NYIKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:42NJDBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42NJDTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hughes – Holtz6:45
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Tierney – Bratt – Hischier2:01
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier6:56
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer9:10
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec2:38
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Nemec7:04
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- DeSimone – Hughes7:05
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Engvall – Holmstrom2:28
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – MacLean4:12
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Horvat8:54
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – MacLean – Holmstrom4:08
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson10:26
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dobson3:17
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–2goals 0–2
- Bortuzzo – Romanov8:24
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).