Sun, Mar 24, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 218 | 05 | 336 |
| OTT | 15 | 27 | 24 | 516 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:37OTTJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:38EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 3:34EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 4:48OTTTim StützleAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 16:30OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 16:57OTTJakob ChychrunPPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:22OTTParker KellyENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:30EDMDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:32EDMVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P1 19:54OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:08EDMVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:24OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:48EDMMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:32
xG 1.24–0.29 (81%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brown – Ryan3:46
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Draisaitl – Foegele10:28
xG 0.22–0.06 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Carrick – Brown2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:25
xG 1.44–0.23 (86%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Nurse – Desharnais11:12
xG 0.68–0.07 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais2:33
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly6:46
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Joseph – Kelly – Greig2:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto13:49
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig6:23
xG 0.05–0.58 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom14:13
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker13:32
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).