Sun, Mar 24, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 14 | 17 | 24 | 415 |
| PHI | 07 | 09 | 117 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:34FLASam ReinhartAssists: Anton Lundell, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:55FLAVladimir TarasenkoPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 4:43FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 12:54PHIBobby BrinkPPAssists: Ryan Poehling, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 18:48FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:46FLASam Reinhart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:06PHIJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
- P1 14:35FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:46FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHICam York: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIBobby Brink: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17FLAEvan Rodrigues: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:20FLANiko Mikkola: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:37
xG 0.68–0.52 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:13
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Lomberg4:19
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Rodrigues – Lorentz5:59
xG 0.02–1.12 (1%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov9:55
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Mahura2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Cates – Lycksell6:09
xG 0.94–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster6:53
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost9:28
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink9:08
xG 0.46–0.86 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGinning – Attard8:42
xG 1.05–0.14 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Johnson – Zamula11:33
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Zamula – York2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).