Mon, Mar 25, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 012 | 08 | 11 | 234 |
| STL | 010 | 06 | 114 | 02 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Anthony Mantha, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P3 14:53STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 0:49VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:49VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:43STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:43STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:43VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58STLKasperi Kapanen: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:30VGKNoah Hanifin: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev7:37
xG 0.75–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Eichel13:41
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy9:03
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden10:50
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud13:05
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:45
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Hague16:58
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Kyrou9:38
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Kyrou2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko6:14
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:40
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug8:38
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Krug – Kessel7:50
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk4:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).