Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 14 | 26 | 421 |
| FLA | 28 | 08 | 15 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:43BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:56FLASam ReinhartAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Dmitry Kulikov · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 15:59BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 9:53FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:38BOSTrent FredericPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Jeremy Swayman · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 17:39BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Parker Wotherspoon · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:10BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:10BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:10FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:11BOSHampus Lindholm: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:15BOSJohn Beecher: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:38FLAMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:43FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:43FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:43BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:43BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:11FLAKevin Stenlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:34BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P3 14:17FLAEvan Rodrigues: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Heinen – Zacha10:45
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher3:55
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Lauko4:15
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Lauko – Beecher2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:22
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Wotherspoon – Peeke11:40
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:42
xG 0.02–0.79 (3%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:44
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 22–7goals 1–2
- Cousins – Stenlund – Lorentz5:27
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Rodrigues10:24
xG 0.43–0.54 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:43
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov10:42
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Montour – Forsling17:31
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Mikkola – Balinskis9:28
xG 0.03–0.78 (4%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).