Tue, Mar 26, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 115 | 015 | 139 |
| PIT | 08 | 25 | 29 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:41PITJesse PuljujarviAssists: Lars Eller, Valtteri Puustinen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:17CARDmitry OrlovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:09PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:04PITDrew O'ConnorENAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–3
- P3 19:37PITSidney CrosbyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:54PITReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:30CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:25CARDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:03CARStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:03PITJonathan Gruden: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Aho – Jarvis14:47
xG 1.03–0.06 (95%)attempts 29–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Martinook8:24
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Drury6:12
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov10:35
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:53
xG 1.04–0.41 (72%)attempts 31–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:45
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce2:54
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting10:42
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Puljujarvi – Gruden – Poulin6:43
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor11:53
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen9:12
xG 0.18–0.48 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – St. Ivany11:47
xG 0.91–0.05 (95%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:28
xG 0.55–0.98 (36%)attempts 13–28goals 1–1
- Letang – Joseph14:52
xG 0.08–0.92 (8%)attempts 6–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).