Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 218 | 112 | 12 | 442 |
| WPG | 013 | 14 | 27 | 01 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:43WPGMason AppletonAssists: Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:46EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:29EDMConnor BrownAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:10EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 9:39WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 10:39WPGSean MonahanAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:22EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:04EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:39EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:39WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:07EDMConnor Brown: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:00WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:28WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:44EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:43WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:54EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Kane – McLeod9:19
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Janmark – Ryan4:33
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:26
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:13
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse13:01
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Kulak – Desharnais11:41
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:00
xG 0.46–1.13 (29%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:09
xG 0.91–0.41 (69%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Perfetti3:59
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Monahan – Ehlers8:51
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Namestnikov – Connor2:18
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk11:02
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Stanley10:02
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:12
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).