Tue, Mar 26, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 014 | 120 | 139 |
| CHI | 215 | 04 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35CHISeth JonesPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Connor Bedard · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:15CHIJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Joey Anderson, Landon Slaggert · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 4:15CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Joey Anderson, Landon Slaggert · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 12:25CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:47CGYDaniil Miromanov: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:50CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:49CHIJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:02CHIKevin Korchinski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary9:22
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary2:27
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Greer – Rooney – Coronato3:40
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:30
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington13:20
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Weegar – Miromanov17:35
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Kylington – Pachal2:16
xG 0.01–0.02 (26%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Anderson – Slaggert8:55
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Raddysh9:24
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Entwistle – Reichel9:05
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Donato – Kurashev – Bedard14:11
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZaitsev – Kaiser12:27
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Megna – Korchinski13:04
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic16:03
xG 0.55–0.74 (43%)attempts 8–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).