Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 07 | 09 | 227 |
| COL | 113 | 07 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 0:52MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, David Savard · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:53MTLJoel ArmiaGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:13MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09MTLArber Xhekaj: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:12MTLJordan Harris: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:18COLSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:57COLSean Walker: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Newhook won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Newhook9:39
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:33
xG 0.81–0.94 (46%)attempts 16–26goals 1–0
- White – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard5:25
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Ylonen7:54
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj10:46
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Harris – Struble13:16
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Struble – Guhle2:14
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen15:13
xG 1.04–0.37 (74%)attempts 28–12goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt9:02
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Parise – Wood – Colton7:48
xG 0.65–0.56 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Trenin – Duhaime5:20
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard12:06
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar15:02
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 28–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Walker10:48
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).