Tue, Mar 26, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 315 | 114 | 641 |
| SJS | 08 | 39 | 03 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06DALWyatt JohnstonSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:28DALMason MarchmentAssists: Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:14DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 0:54SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: William Eklund, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 2:00SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Thomas Bordeleau, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 8:05DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Nils Lundkvist · Bat, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 8:58SJSKlim KostinAssists: Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P2 10:13DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 11:45DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:15SJSHenry Thrun: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:18DALEsa Lindell: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:52DALSam Steel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:16DALTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:16SJSLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:23SJSThomas Bordeleau: Holding2 min
- P3 3:44DALChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:16SJSKyle Burroughs: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:04SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:28
xG 1.33–0.23 (85%)attempts 24–5goals 1–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel9:14
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Dellandrea11:27
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston8:43
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley15:51
xG 1.07–0.35 (76%)attempts 27–17goals 2–0
- Tanev – Lindell13:46
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist13:56
xG 0.53–0.67 (44%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Sturm – Bordeleau5:58
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kunin – Barabanov – Eklund4:05
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kunin – Bordeleau – Eklund2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Barabanov2:43
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Ferraro11:06
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Addison8:49
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun12:26
xG 0.04–1.55 (2%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).