Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 09 | 116 | 130 |
| MTL | 26 | 06 | 25 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 16:46MTLJesse YlonenGWGAssists: Jayden Struble, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 17:05MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–3
- P3 18:59PHIOwen TippettAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:56MTLJake EvansENAssists: Mike Matheson, Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:47MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:37PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:36PHIOwen Tippett: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:36MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:40PHIRonnie Attard: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:51MTLColin White: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:43MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:39MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:39PHIGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Farabee2:49
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink2:24
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster4:27
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Couturier – Lycksell5:55
xG 0.01–0.01 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York15:22
xG 1.00–0.49 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Ginning – Attard9:07
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zamula11:06
xG 0.27–0.58 (31%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Newhook9:30
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- White – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard5:24
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:53
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Ylonen7:28
xG 0.16–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle11:18
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Harris – Struble10:53
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj12:32
xG 0.19–0.84 (19%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).