Thu, Mar 28, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 24 | 07 | 219 |
| PIT | 010 | 216 | 110 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:20CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 9:50PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 13:11CBJCole SillingerAssists: Alexandre Texier, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 16:11PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 0:35PITDrew O'ConnorGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:19CBJErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:15PITSamuel Poulin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:35CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:56CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:55CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:27CBJAlexandre Texier: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:31PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Voronkov13:30
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Meyer – Angle – Malatesta6:24
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger10:59
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gaunce – Olivier – Pyyhtia8:10
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov3:09
xG 0.61–0.05 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Provorov – Bean8:26
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Christiansen5:13
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting10:17
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen8:39
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor12:21
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Carter – Puljujarvi – Poulin6:13
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson12:40
xG 1.01–0.49 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Karlsson2:19
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Graves – St. Ivany5:25
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).