Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 19 | 010 | 328 |
| STL | 17 | 28 | 24 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02STLZachary BolducAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Jordan Binnington · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:48CGYAndrei KuzmenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 18:37CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:27STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 8:54STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:50CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 2:04STLBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:45STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Binnington · Snap, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:04CGYDaniil Miromanov: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:27STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:19CGYJoel Hanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:26CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:11STLZach Dean: Holding2 min
- P3 5:06STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko11:19
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau13:12
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Hunt – Greer – Rooney3:08
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Greer – Rooney – Coronato4:53
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Andersson16:55
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov14:23
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Pachal – Okhotiuk11:44
xG 0.20–0.62 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Toropchenko – Bolduc8:00
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou10:35
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Walker – Kapanen – Dean7:06
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours13:22
xG 0.58–0.93 (38%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko16:50
xG 0.79–0.61 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Faulk – Perunovich9:57
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Perunovich – Kessel3:52
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).