Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 06 | 37 | 427 |
| WPG | 010 | 115 | 015 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:56VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:31WPGSean MonahanAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 14:31VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:15VGKIvan BarbashevENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
- P3 19:26VGKJack EichelENAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:51VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:44VGKChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:26VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:52VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
- P2 15:04VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:23VGKNicolas Hague: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 11:23WPGMark Scheifele: Instigator2 min
- P3 11:23VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:23WPGMark Scheifele: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:23WPGMark Scheifele: Instigator misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev8:25
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:37
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden3:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Cotter3:49
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Hague12:00
xG 0.99–0.44 (69%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud10:28
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Hutton – Theodore2:17
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Namestnikov – Connor5:16
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:10
xG 0.74–0.57 (57%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Monahan – Ehlers9:54
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson2:37
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Samberg7:55
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Dillon – DeMelo3:44
xG 0.17–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:21
xG 0.67–0.61 (53%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).