Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Rangers 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 010 | 27 | 02 | 2 | 325 |
| COL | 06 | 112 | 118 | 05 | 0 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:27COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 2:59NYRKaapo KakkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 9:35NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 12:47COLDevon ToewsUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 2. COL Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. NYR Vincent Trocheck scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:38COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P1 17:12NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:00NYRJimmy Vesey: Interference2 min
- P3 8:47COLZach Parise: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:35COLCasey Mittelstadt: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Brodzinski – Wennberg – Kakko6:50
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko2:06
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Cuylle10:14
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:43
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Schneider16:25
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Ruhwedel – Jones10:05
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren15:12
xG 0.40–2.07 (16%)attempts 10–28goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen18:33
xG 1.86–0.33 (85%)attempts 27–13goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Trenin – Foudy3:29
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Duhaime – Mittelstadt8:15
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Parise – Wood – Colton8:07
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:55
xG 1.69–0.36 (83%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
- Girard – Walker4:10
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews2:23
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).