Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 014 | 211 | 334 |
| VAN | 08 | 111 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:48DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn · Poke, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 7:39VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 16:52DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 17:57DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:09VANIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 8:09DALWyatt Johnston: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:21VANQuinn Hughes: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48VANConor Garland: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 1:06DALThomas Harley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:57DALCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:34VANTeddy Blueger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:49DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P2 18:18VANNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:32VANTeddy Blueger: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment10:08
xG 1.19–0.87 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:46
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston9:47
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel6:28
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Lindell7:48
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist5:04
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist2:57
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Garland – Podkolzin2:00
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Lafferty – Bains7:35
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander9:15
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland5:35
xG 0.03–0.29 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Zadorov12:24
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes14:11
xG 0.84–1.07 (44%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Myers – Soucy8:46
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).