Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 013 | 09 | 17 | 12 | 231 |
| MIN | 07 | 113 | 08 | 05 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:44MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 13:43VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 3:30VGKJonathan MarchessaultENGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:49MINVinni Lettieri: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:58MINRyan Hartman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:13MINMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:03VGKJack Eichel: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P2 14:03VGKJack Eichel: Game misconduct10 min
- OT 3:30MINRyan Hartman: Abusive language10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Amadio – Cotter6:38
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter2:15
xG 0.05–0.08 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev8:46
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel7:04
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:06
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo14:29
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Hague15:41
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:51
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Rossi9:38
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Khusnutdinov10:05
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Shaw – Lucchini5:23
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Chisholm11:36
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber12:51
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).