Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 29 | 112 | 01 | 1 | 333 |
| CBJ | 113 | 012 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47CBJMathieu OlivierSHAssists: Cole Sillinger · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 13:29PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:55PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 8:59PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 9:08CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Damon Severson, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:47CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. CBJ Alexandre Texier scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko stopped
- 6. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 7. CBJ Alex Nylander stopped
- 8. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 9. CBJ Damon Severson scored
- 10. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:47CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:47PITValtteri Puustinen: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 10:38PITReilly Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:41PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:10PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:59CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith – Puustinen10:08
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting7:29
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Puljujarvi – Poulin2:40
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor13:43
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson16:40
xG 0.89–0.49 (65%)attempts 20–18goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Joseph2:23
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- St. Ivany – Ludvig9:11
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Marchenko – Sillinger13:23
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Nylander – Voronkov10:45
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Gaunce – Olivier – Pyyhtia10:54
xG 0.15–0.54 (21%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski16:27
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Severson – Provorov2:46
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov5:43
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).