Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 111 | 211 | 330 |
| MTL | 08 | 014 | 04 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:33CARJordan StaalSHGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P3 3:42CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 17:12CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.71 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:06MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P2 8:27CAREvgeny Kuznetsov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:51CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:00MTLJordan Harris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:48CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Kotkaniemi – Drury8:33
xG 0.36–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Aho – Jarvis11:49
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov10:23
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Martinook – Necas9:14
xG 0.34–0.62 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:22
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 27–17goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield14:29
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:52
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Ylonen10:19
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:23
xG 0.67–0.71 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook9:34
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- White – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard7:01
xG 0.02–0.49 (3%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Struble14:25
xG 0.81–0.92 (47%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Matheson – Harris17:44
xG 0.62–0.82 (43%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj13:17
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).