Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 19 | 26 | 524 |
| PHI | 07 | 113 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01CHILukas ReichelAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 17:00CHIPhilipp KurashevGWGAssists: Connor Bedard, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:17PHITyson FoersterAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:28CHINick FolignoPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 9:09CHIJoey AndersonAssists: Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 14:33CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Joey Anderson, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:51CHIJaycob Megna: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:00CHIRyan Donato: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:00PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:04CHIConnor Bedard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:21CHIJarred Tinordi: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:39PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05PHIScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:13CHIRyan Donato: Interference2 min
- P3 11:45PHIOwen Tippett: Interference2 min
- P3 16:35PHIGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Anderson – Reichel7:49
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Slaggert7:03
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Kurashev – Bedard10:44
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Foligno – Johnson – Raddysh10:14
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic13:37
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Tinordi – Kaiser12:27
xG 0.68–0.70 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Megna – Korchinski14:14
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost9:21
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Poehling – Farabee2:21
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Gurianov – Cates3:58
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Foerster3:39
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Seeler15:03
xG 1.00–0.43 (70%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Ginning – Zamula10:25
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York17:16
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).