Sat, Mar 30, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 18 | 09 | 03 | 3 | 329 |
| WSH | 06 | 25 | 05 | 04 | 2 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:47BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P2 1:20WSHMichael SgarbossaAssists: Nick Jensen, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:22BOSJohn BeecherUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 14:03WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 4. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak scored
- 6. WSH Sonny Milano scored
- 7. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 8. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 9. BOS Kevin Shattenkirk scored
- 10. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:36WSHBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:54BOSDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:22BOSKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:45WSHMartin Fehérváry: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:57BOSHampus Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha12:34
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Brazeau – Geekie9:26
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Frederic8:54
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Lauko – Beecher5:30
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy19:02
xG 0.87–0.36 (71%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Peeke9:41
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Carlo2:44
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Protas – Miroshnichenko8:10
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Malenstyn – Protas4:04
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Milano – Strome3:34
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Milano – Lapierre8:54
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Alexeyev10:30
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Iorio6:55
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).