Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 017 | 118 | 146 |
| CBJ | 07 | 314 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:35CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 14:12CBJAlex NylanderGWGAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 18:03CBJAlex NylanderAssists: Jake Bean, Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 4:39COLChris WagnerAssists: Sean Walker, Artturi Lehkonen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:27CBJCole SillingerENAssists: Alexandre Texier, Kirill Marchenko · Tip-in, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:28COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
- P1 17:45CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:28COLChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:07CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min
- P3 1:33CBJKirill Marchenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:30CBJJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Voronkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Duhaime – Mittelstadt8:44
xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:30
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Foudy3:33
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Wood – Colton9:14
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard9:07
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Toews – Girard3:46
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:04
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Olivier – Pyyhtia7:10
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Danforth – Meyer – Malatesta6:34
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger12:36
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Nylander – Voronkov10:19
xG 0.43–1.04 (29%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean4:09
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Bean – Christiansen2:02
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski18:56
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).