Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 013 | 113 | 03 | 238 |
| STL | 06 | 117 | 15 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Connor Brown, Sam Carrick · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:15STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:44STLBrayden SchennAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 14:35EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:09STLBrandon SaadGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P2 6:37EDMEvander Kane: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P2 6:37EDMEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:37STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:15EDMZach Hyman: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:04EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:31STLJordan Binnington: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:28STLPavel Buchnevich: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:28EDMSam Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:15EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:48STLTyler Tucker: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:19
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Draisaitl7:11
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:01
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Kane – Foegele – McLeod9:21
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:00
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Ceci – Nurse16:03
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais10:01
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Hayes – Kapanen10:14
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Walker – Blais – Dean4:21
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Toropchenko10:46
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Saad – Thomas – Neighbours12:27
xG 0.37–0.87 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Tucker5:39
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug20:54
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko15:59
xG 0.50–0.99 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).